It’s been a typically grim start to the season for Everton, with three straight losses to kick off the Premier League campaign — just like last year! As then, the team’s solitary bright spot has been a win over lowly Doncaster Rovers in the EFL Cup. These must be the “good times” that former chairman Bill Kenwright was referring to. Ah, the thrill of victory.
Last term, the Blues didn’t win in the league until their sixth match, largely due to an attack hobbled by a lack of fit strikers and wingers. The team managed to score only twice in their opening five, despite generating an xG (Expected Goals) statistic of 7.4 — a problem which would persist – and frustrate – throughout the campaign.
This time around, the Toffees have been conceding goals like a rusty old bucket leaks water. They’ve been hammered twice and then somehow managed to squander a two-goal lead with bare minutes left, in losing at home to Bournemouth two weeks ago. Last season, Everton visited Aston Villa during that bleak run, being dismissed contemptuously 4-0 by the hosts.
The Blues head to Villa Park in Saturday’s late kickoff.
Form
The West Midland club backed Unai Emery in the transfer market last season, to the tune of €79m net. The Spaniard, a veteran of continental competitions from his time at Villarreal and – in particular- Sevilla, juggled the demands of the Europa Conference League with a domestic campaign, reaching the semi-finals of the former and finishing fourth in the latter. The team powered through much of the season in impressive fashion, but slowed in the spring and barely slumped over the line to secure Champions League qualification, failing to win any of their last six games in all competitions.
Ahead of the new season, Villa were very active in the market, adding more than €176m of talent. Foremost amongst the new recruits was Everton midfielder Amadou Onana, captured for €59m. Also arriving were Chelsea left back Ian Maatsen (€45m), fresh off off a short loan at Dortmund, with whom he reached the Champions League final, and two more former Blues in old stager Ross Barkley and relative youngster Lewis Dobbin. Villa executed buy-back options on two players sold just the previous summer, bringing back forward Cameron Archer along with winger Jadon Philogene, who’d been a target for Everton.
A host of names departed Villa Park during the window, with the club raising €145m in sales. The most noteworthy departures were midfielder Douglas Luiz to Juventus and attacker Moussa Diaby, for a stint of well-paid obscurity in the Saudi Pro League. Several players left on loan – including Dobbin – and Archer was bizarrely sold again only a month after returning, this time to Southampton. The sale of Tim Iroegbunam to Everton at the end of June appeared of minor significance, but the midfielder has found himself unexpectedly starting every game for his new club, earning plenty of plaudits.
Villa have commenced the new season in solid fashion, without yet looking astonishingly good. A competitive opening day 2-1 away win over West Ham United was followed by a 2-0 home loss to projected title contenders Arsenal, in which they squandered chances to go ahead, only to be punished clinically. More routine was their victory over fellow Midlands club Leicester City, last time out. The Villans sit in seventh spot in the nascent Premier League table.
Style of Play
The Basque manager has turned Villa from strugglers, since their return to the top flight five years ago, into a genuine top four side. They’ve been one of the form teams in the league since he took charge. He’s shown variety in his tactical setup, deploying a number of formations, though this season he’s gone with a 4-4-2, after fielding a 4-2-3-1 in the opener. Emery is a pragmatic operator — though this should not be confused with being overly cautious.
The Midland outfit deploy a high line, relying on their defenders to win their individual battles. A compact formation restricts passing opportunities for the opposition through the middle, forcing them out wide, or to go long. It’s a relatively high risk/reward setup, though nothing like as cavalier as that employed by Tottenham Hotspur, under Ange Postecoglou. The payoff is in the form of high turnovers, which Villa can exploit with quick, mobile players such as Ollie Watkins and Leon Bailey.
Villa enjoyed a good share of possession last term (52.8%), but are almost ten percent down on that figure so far this season, albeit on a small sample size. Whether this dip indicates a shift to a more reactive, counterattacking approach is too early to say for certain. They are still attempting to develop play from the back, but have always been happy to go direct when there’s an opportunity to do so.
Player Assessment
Onana has made quite an impact since arriving at Villa Park. The tall defensive midfielder was a poor fit for Sean Dyche’s direct style of play and it always appeared likely that he’d do well in a more possession-based, passing system. It should surprise nobody that he’s hit the ground running under Emery. The Belgian leads the side in pass accuracy, boasting a completion percentage of 93.4. He’s not racking up lots of tackles, but is averaging two interceptions per match. The former Blue has also bagged two goals, matching his tally for his old club last season.
Watkins is goalless to start the campaign, but has spurned some big chances already, given he’s accumulated an xG of 1.6 over three games. The England striker registered career highs in both goals (19) and assists (13) last term however, and seems certain to start finding the back of the net sooner or later. He’s still making the right runs and has the quality and persistence to wear down even the best defenders.
Solution
On paper this match promises to present a very tough return to action for Dyche’s beleaguered outfit. There’s been a lot of grumbling in the fan base over the team’s start to the campaign, coming off a strong end to the previous campaign — which would have seen Everton finish 12th purely off of their on-the-pitch achievements. That, and a generally decent summer transfer window, in which at least some problems in the squad appeared to have been addressed, gave cause for encouragement ahead of the season.
Obviously, a trio of poor results has dispersed much of that positivity. The club’s continuing uncertain status at the ownership and executive level hasn’t helped matters, and in such times Dyche’s often hard to gauge comments in press conferences aren’t helping matters any, serving merely to irritate sections of the fan base. The manager offering assurances – based on an unlikely number of viewings – that the late surrender against Bournemouth had nothing to do with his lack of substitutions, goes against consensus opinion and is suggestive of an inability to accept criticism, even if constructive.
If so, this bodes ill for the Toffees manager.
Few expect Everton to show up at Villa Park and to turn over over the hosts, so defeat shouldn’t really pile any further pressure on Dyche, though the manner of any loss will be impactful. If the visitors are somewhat competitive losers, then a heavily negative fan reaction would be inappropriate. But a desultory effort, or a hammering is bound to have an effect.
The Blues lineup will attract plenty of interest, with uber-veteran Ashley Young likely to line up at right back, as the only available senior option, but the big question will be whether unpopular choice Michael Keane will retain his place at the centre of defence ahead of summer signing Jake O’Brien. It’s hard to make a solid case for Everton, who will probably adopt a similar game plan to that utilized at Spurs — though hopefully not quite as passively executed. I feel the team will sit deep, stay compact and hope for something on the break. Pickings could be slim, however and the team’s defence could creak under Villa’s pressure.
Predication: Aston Villa 2-0 Everton
Stats provided courtesy of fbref.com, whoscored.com and transfermarkt.co.