Taking on a centre-back to protect the lead, only for the same centre-back to concede a penalty and deny the club their first win of the season, is sure to cause an upset.
Leicester City came close to three points at Crystal Palace but only conceded one and with fingers crossed. Days later, the decisions that caused Conor Coady to trip Ismaila Sarr are still up for debate. Questions are directed to Steve Cooper.
Why did he bring in an extra centre-back? Is it something he does all the time? Does it ever work? Will this become the theme of City’s season?
The first of these questions relates specifically to Saturday’s game and Cooper’s explanation that the change was in response to Palace’s attacking substitutions makes sense, although the balance of the team was affected and City struggled to get out of their own half, which only added to the pressure. under which they were between. Other questions require a deeper dive.
City’s draw against Palace was the fifteenth time in 58 games that a Premier League manager has taken Cooper’s side into the final 15 minutes of a game. Of the previous 14 times, 11 ended in victory and three did not.
Analyzing those 14 games, it doesn’t appear that adding a third centre-back to Cooper is a particularly popular tactic. But when it did, it wasn’t always so successful.
Before Saturday, it was something Cooper had only managed three times in Premier League games where his side had held on to take a late lead. Against Liverpool in 22-23 it worked, Nottingham Forest won 1-0. Against Southampton in the same season, he was almost successful as Forest secured a 4-3 victory, but only after he scored a late penalty to reduce their lead.
Against Wolves, this appointment did not work. Joe Worrall replaced Emmanuel Dennis for Forest with a goal ahead, only for Daniel Podence to equalize in the 83rd minute to earn a share of the points for Wolves.
But while centre-back changes aren’t that frequent, defensive changes are. In the next five games, where Forest successfully held on for victory, Cooper made adjustments, usually by bringing in a full-back or a deep-lying midfielder as a striker. There are also nuances to consider, as in some games where Forest didn’t make changes, they started the game with three central defenders on the pitch and no more options on the bench to turn to.
That was the case in the 2-1 defeat against Brentford by 22-23. Striker Brennan Johnson was replaced by defensive midfielder Cheikhou Kouyate just after the hour mark with Forest leading 1-0. The goals were scored in the 82nd and 94th minute.
In last season’s 2-2 draw with Luton, Cooper’s substitutions did nothing to change Forest’s form, but were criticized by fans. Forest led 2-0 when the first round of substitutions came and Luton got one back soon after. After a few more substitutions, the Hatters equalized. But in the run-up to this game, one of the themes of Cooper’s pre-match press conference was the number of goals scored by the reserves he introduced.
Given the late drama of his Premier League career, Cooper has lost more points than he has won. With Forest at 22-23, they dropped three points, won four and lost seven in the last 15 minutes of the game. That three-point deficit isn’t huge, but it wasn’t the worst in the league either. That honor naturally went to Leicester, six points adrift. Everton, West Ham and Man City had a worse result than Forest. Last season, before he was fired, Cooper won two points but dropped four in the final 15 minutes to fall behind by two.
At Selhurst Park, City led at half-time for the first time this season. With Forest, Cooper did not have very good results in these scenarios.
In their only full Premier League season, Forest have taken the lead 11 times, which is very good, more often than eight other teams. But in only five of those 11 they won, three ended in a draw and three in defeat.
This record covers some of the games already mentioned, but also includes games where Forest conceded before the final half of the game. They have scored 20 goals in that period, 11 of which have equalized for the opposition, the second-worst tally in the division, only ahead of Leeds. Last season before he was sacked, Forest led nine times and equalized six times.
So, in summary, adding an extra center back to defend a lead late isn’t a particularly successful tactic for Cooper, but it’s not a common tactic either. Replacing strikers with full-backs or midfielders is more popular and also more successful. The manager’s late-game record isn’t great, but it’s not disastrous either, but letting go of a half-time lead was a problem.
None of this information will be new to Cooper. He spent his time away from the game evaluating his own leadership strengths and weaknesses and getting outside analyzes of his qualities and weaknesses. While some habits can die hard, everything he’s learned about himself in his time away could make him a different manager to the one at Forest.
But for now, if City lead with 15 minutes to go and a centre-back is introduced, it has to work. As a one-off, you can forgive yourself. If it becomes a pattern, fans will notice.